How managers predict the future: the three questions to ask every week

A manager emailed me last week, close to panic.

A manager emailed me last week, close to panic.

His best contractor, the one holding all the technical knowledge, had become a problem. Stakeholders wanted him gone. Replacing him would take four months and blow up the project.

“What should I do?”

Here’s my honest answer, and it wasn’t what he wanted to hear.

The fact that you’re asking now means you already lost the thing that would’ve saved you. Options.

That contractor didn’t become a problem this week. People who hold all the knowledge and struggle with people become a problem in month one. Everyone sees it except the manager, who’s grateful the work’s getting done.

And the four-month gap? That’s a decision he made a year ago, by never building a backup.

This isn’t a contractor problem. It’s a forecasting problem.

And forecasting isn’t intuition, or being clever, or “strategic” in some vague way. It’s three questions. Asked every week. About every critical person you’ve got.

One. Where am I relying on a single person who’d be painful to lose?

Two. What’s the earliest signal that dependency is turning into a risk?

Three. What’s my move the moment that signal shows up?

If you can’t answer all three about your team right now, you’re managing in the dark. And you’ll keep getting blindsided.

So this week, block thirty minutes on Friday. Run the three questions across your team. Write the actual names down, because a name forces honesty in a way a general worry never does.

Then act on the most uncomfortable answer. Not the easy one. The uncomfortable answer is usually the forecast trying to save you six months early.

For the manager who emailed me, it was concrete. Start recruiting now, the four months is happening either way. Get the contractor documenting everything in fourteen days, framed as handover for growth. Pick one internal person to shadow him this month, so the knowledge stops living in one head.

Every fire you’re fighting was a forecast you didn’t make.

Good managers don’t see the future because they’re gifted. They see it because they ask three questions every week, and act before the smoke.

Talk soon,

Yasar

P.S. If you’re firefighting more than you’d admit and you want to lead like someone the business can’t overlook, book a 15-minute career strategy call. This forecasting system is one piece of how we turn good managers into executive leaders: https://ovdlab.com/book/team/strategy-discovery-call/15min